“We are going to learn just how important the ISS is to leadership.”
Technicians work on the pad in Baikonur with the fully fueled Soyuz rocket. Credit: NASA TV
A Soyuz rocket launched on Thursday carrying Roscosmos cosmonauts Sergei Kud-Sverchkov and Sergei Mikayev, as well as NASA astronaut Christopher Williams, for an eight-month mission to the International Space Station. The trio of astronauts arrived at the orbiting laboratory without incident.
However, on the ground, there was a serious problem during the launch with the ground systems that support processing of the vehicle before liftoff at Site 31, located at the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan.
In a terse statement issued Thursday night on the social media site Telegram, the Russian space corporation that operates Soyuz appeared to downplay the incident: “The launch pad was inspected, as is done every time a rocket is launched. Damage to several launch pad components was identified. Damage can occur after launch, so such inspections are mandatory worldwide. The launch pad’s condition is currently being assessed.”
‘Significant’ damage
However video imagery of the launch site after liftoff showed substantial damage, with a large service platform appearing to have fallen into the flame trench below the launch table. According to one source, this is a platform located beneath the rocket, where workers can access the vehicle before liftoff. It has a mass of about 20 metric tons and was apparently not secured prior to launch, and the thrust of the vehicle ejected it into the flame trench. “There is significant damage to the pad,” said this source.
Russia has plenty of launch pads, both in Russia and neighboring countries, including Kazakhstan, that were formerly part of the Soviet Union. However, Site 31 at Baikonur is the country’s only pad presently configured to handle launches of the Soyuz rocket and two spacecraft critical to the space station, the cargo-only Progress vehicle and the Soyuz crew capsule.
Previously these vehicles launched from the historic Site 1 at the spaceport—where Yuri Gagarin, the first human to do so, went to space—but this pad was recently decommissioned and is being turned into a museum. Anatoly Zak, of Russian Space Web, noted that there are other Soyuz pads elsewhere in Russia, but none are readily configurable to handle Progress and Soyuz spacecraft missions.
Roscosmos, in its statement, said the issue would be taken care of. “All necessary spare components are available for repair, and the damage will be repaired shortly.”
A test of Russian commitment to ISS
That was likely true before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, US-based observers of the Russian space program have noted a diminution of the country’s civil space capabilities as resources have been devoted to the war.
The damage will therefore test the current leaders of Russia. How committed are they to the International Space Station partnership with NASA? Before, they were willing to play out the string to 2030 and the end of the station’s lifetime, but that required minimal investment in new capabilities. In fact, Russia recently cut the number of crewed Soyuz missions to the station from four every two years down to three, to save money. Now they must devote significant resources to the Soyuz program critical to the ISS.
“This is a real-life test of their resilience,” Jeff Manber, a senior Voyager official and former Nanoracks chief executive with long-time expertise in Russia’s space program, told Ars. “We are going to learn just how important the ISS is to leadership there.”
Thursday was the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States and so far NASA has not commented on the implications of damage to Site 31 in Kazakhstan.
However one source familiar with the agency’s relationship with Russia said there are multiple concerns. In the long-term, as Manber said, this will test Russia’s commitment to the partnership. But in the near-term there are concerns about the lack of Progress launches.
Progress is key to flying ISS
Not only does this cargo vehicle bring supplies to the Russian segment of the station, it is used as a primary means to reboost the space station’s altitude. It also services the Russian thruster attitude control system which works alongside the US control moment gyroscopes to maintain the station’s attitude and orientation. Notably, the Russian control system “desaturates” the US gyroscopes by removing their excess angular momentum.
This could potentially be accomplished by docked vehicles, at a high fuel cost, the source said. Moreover, the US cargo supply ships, SpaceX’s Dragon and Northrop Grumman’s Cygnus, have also demonstrated the capability to reboost the space station. But long-term it is not immediately clear whether US vehicles could completely make up for the loss of Progress vehicles.
According to an internal schedule there are two Progress vehicles due to launch between now and July 2027, followed by the next crewed Soyuz mission next summer.
The at least temporary loss of Site 31 will only place further pressure on SpaceX. The company currently flies NASA’s only operational crewed vehicle capable of reaching the space station, and the space agency recently announced that Boeing’s Starliner vehicle needs to fly an uncrewed mission before potentially carrying crew again. Moreover, due to rocket issues, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 vehicle is the only rocket currently available to launch both Dragon and Cygnus supply missions to the space station. For a time, SpaceX may also now be called upon to backstop Russia as well.
Eric Berger is the senior space editor at Ars Technica, covering everything from astronomy to private space to NASA policy, and author of two books: Liftoff, about the rise of SpaceX; and Reentry, on the development of the Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon. A certified meteorologist, Eric lives in Houston.
