IDC has sharply lowered its outlook for the global PC market, warning that ongoing memory shortages and supply chain disruptions could drag down shipments throughout 2026 and potentially into 2027. The research firm now expects global PC shipments to fall 11.3 percent this year, a much steeper decline than the 2.4 percent it predicted previously.
The revised forecast comes from the latest update to IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker. Tablets are also expected to see weaker demand, with global shipments forecast to decline 7.6 percent during the same period.
According to IDC, the changes are caused by a combination of the ongoing hardware constraints and rising component prices that are affecting manufacturers’ ability to produce devices at scale.
Memory shortages remain a central factor, while supply limitations across the technology industry are creating even greater pressure on production.
These conditions are expected to continue well beyond the current year. IDC’s analysis suggests the supply challenges tied to memory and other key components could drag on into 2027, making it difficult for manufacturers to plan output or pricing with any degree of confidence.
“The overall tech industry, as well as many others, continues to face uncontrollable headwinds that, when compounded, result in massive disruption,” said Ryan Reith, group vice president, Devices and Consumer. “The lists of industry and geopolitical events that continue to grow is making decision-making — and even survival in some sectors — nearly impossible. What has turned all of this from a million-dollar question into a trillion-dollar question is the complete uncertainty around when these pressures will subside.”
IDC predictions
The situation could become even more complicated as a result of current global events. IDC said the outlook was produced before the conflict in the Middle East escalated to its current level, which could add additional strain to industries including technology and hardware.
Even with declining shipment volumes, IDC expects overall market revenue to rise. Higher average selling prices are likely to push total PC market value up 1.6 percent to $274 billion this year. Tablets could see a similar pattern, with market value projected to increase 3.9 percent to $66.8 billion.
“The era of bargain-priced PCs and tablets is behind us for now, as rising ASPs and component costs shift the market’s balance of power,” said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager for IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. “Memory shortages will persist well into 2027. While we anticipate some easing of prices beginning in 2028, the market is unlikely to return to the pricing levels seen in 2025. Instead, we expect a new normal defined by structurally higher ASPs and a corresponding softening in long-term demand.”
IDC expects manufacturers to adapt their strategies as these conditions continue. They are likely to focus more on strengthening supply chains and diversifying component sourcing to reduce dependence on limited suppliers.
Some vendors could also explore using lower specification components in certain devices to keep prices under control and maintain existing product lineups. These decisions will influence if and how quickly buyers adopt new PCs and tablets in the coming years.
What do you think about IDC’s forecast for the PC market? Let us know in the comments.
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